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The crash in oil prices, which has come as blessing to some and curse to others, presents a new twist to investing in emerging markets in 2015.
Complicating matters further, developing economies are also contending with slowing growth in China, a recession in Russia and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
So, which markets are poised to deliver the best returns in the current environment?
India, Turkey and Taiwan are Goldman Sachs' top picks in the emerging market space this year.
Coming into 2014, we argued that picking the right spots in EM would be more important than taking a view on the aggregate equity index," Caesar Maasry, head of emerging market equity strategy at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published on Friday.
"Heading into 2015, we maintain a similar view – there are clear winners and losers from the recent decline in commodity prices, a strong U.S. economy and potential Fed hikes," he said.
As oil-importers, Turkey and India stand to benefit from a continued improvement in their current account balances – a pivotal shift from their hefty deficits that made them vulnerable during the 'taper tantrum' of 2013.
The two markets could also get a boost from potential interest rate cuts during the first half of the year, Maasry said. Easing inflation is seen opening the door to monetary easing in both countries.
India and Turkey were among the world's best performing equity markets in 2014, rising 30 percent and 28 percent, respectively. By comparison, the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined almost 5 percent last year.
Brazil and Russia’s membership of the BRICs may expire by the end of this decade if they fail to revive their flagging economies, according to Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist who coined the acronym.
Asked if he would still group Brazil, Russia, India and China together as emerging market powerhouses as he did in 2001, O’Neill said “I might be tempted to call it just ’IC’ or if the next three years are the same as the last for Brazil and Russia I might in 2019!!”
The BRIC grouping will be dragged down by a 1.8 percent contraction in Russia and less than 1 percent expansion in Brazil, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. China is seen growing 7 percent and India 5.5 percent.
The BRICs were still booming as recently as 2007 with Russia expanding 8.5 percent and Brazil in excess of 6 percent that year. The bull market in commodities that helped propel growth in those nations has since ended, while Russia has been battered by sanctions linked to the crisis in Ukraine and Brazil has grappled with an unprecedented corruption scandal involving its state-owned oil company.
“It is tough for the BRIC countries to all repeat their remarkable growth rates” of the first decade of this century, said O’Neill, a Bloomberg View columnist and former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management International. (GSGEPPA) “There was a lot of very powerful and fortuitous forces taking place, some of which have now gone.”
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What To Do Today..........
Our Opininon for Today's Market.......
1.Market Looks Volatile.....
1.Some Insider Say NIfTy go up to 6200
What To Do Today........
Nifty....Today Face Resistance at......8358..8395..8435
Nifty.....Today Support at ..8270...8220...8175
Nifty Range...7200--------9200
TRACK ME RESEARCH......
NEXT TGT FOR
Our Opinion for Today's Market.......
1.Stock Specific Movement Expected Today ......
2. Mid-caps Looks Good....
INTRADAY HOT STOCKS : 12/1/2015
sell mstak @ 410 sl 415tgt 403
sell nifty sl 8525 tgt 8220/8000
sell tatatst below 395 tgt 390/380
sell sbi below 307 tgt 302/295 buy ab 309
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