"The
rise of India looks unstoppable," the Center for Economics and
Business Research (CEBR) said last week. In its annual World Economic
League Table, the group expects India to become the Commonwealth's
largest economy by 2018. In 2024, the group expects India will become
the world's third largest economy from its present status as
fourth-largest.
The
Indian economy is set to kick off the year as the favorite among
emerging markets thanks to a series of positive economic developments
coupled with the accelerating pace of Prime Minister Modi's reforms.
"We
expect India's stock market to generally outperform emerging and
developing peers in 2015," said Howie Lee, investment analyst at Phillip
Futures, in a report last week. The Sensex stock index was Asia's
second-best performing market in 2014, rising around 30 percent.
New
Delhi is expected to post economic growth of 5.5 percent during the
fiscal year ending March 2015, according to the finance ministry - a
welcome sign for an economy that's seen sub-5 percent growth for two
consecutive years.
2013
marked a year of vulnerability for India as a ballooning current
account deficit triggered sharp capital outflows when the Federal
Reserve first broached the idea it would reduce its stimulus program.
"Call
it a huge slice of luck or astute economic forecasting, but going
into 2015, the problems that have plagued India for the past two years
have mostly been subdued. Due to falling commodity prices, the twin
terrors of current account deficit and high inflation have come under
substantial control," said Howie Lee of Phillip Futures.
November's
wholesale price inflation rate came in at zero for the first time in
over five years, and a far cry from May's 6 percent annual increase.
Lee said a global fall in food prices proved more effective in
containing inflation than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2013
interest rate hike.
While
the current account deficit remained high at 2.1 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) during the July-September quarter, expectations
for oil prices to remain low in the near term will ease the strain, Lee
said. Not only does cheaper oil ease India's import bill, it also
allowed Modi to end diesel subsidies, which cost the government over $20
billion in the last fiscal year.
For
the government to achieve GDP growth above 6 percent, Morgan Stanley
recommends greater focus on medium-term reforms, including the easing
land acquisition rules, flexibility in labor markets, and the
introduction of a goods and services tax (GST) to create a national
taxation system.
Moreover,
the overall ease of doing business remains a major priority for the
government, the bank added. It's watching for various policy steps on
streamlining clearances for forest and environmental projects,
expediting industrial licensing processes and providing stable taxation
policies. It also wants to see initiatives under the "Make in India"
campaign aimed at convincing multi-national companies to manufacture
within the country.
The
Obama administration’s move to allow exports of ultralight crude
without government approval may encourage shale drilling and thwart
Saudi Arabia’s strategy to curb U.S. output, further weakening oil
markets, according to Citigroup Inc.
A
type of crude known as condensate can be exported if it is run through
a distillation tower, which separates the hydrocarbons that make up
the oil, according to U.S. government guidelines published yesterday.
That may boost supplies ready to be sold overseas to as much as 1
million barrels a day by the end of 2015.
Saudi
Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to
maintain its production quota at a meeting last month even as a shale
boom boosted U.S. output to the highest in more than three decades. That
prompted speculation OPEC was willing to let prices fall to force
some companies with higher drilling costs to stop pumping.
“U.S.
producers are under the gun to reduce capital expenditures given
lower prices,” Citigroup said in the report. “Now an export route
provides a new lease on life that can further weaken crude oil markets
and throw a monkey wrench into recent Saudi plans to cripple U.S.
production".
Current
U.S. export capacity is at about 200,000 barrels a day, which could
be expanded to 500,000 a day by the middle of 2015, according to the
bank.