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We Dare To Predict.......

Where Dreams Come True......

A New India is in the offing....

..........Aditya Puri

Aditya Puri, chief executive officer and managing director of HDFC Bank, feels the country is likely to see significant policy momentum soon.

YES!!!!!

India is an incredibly diverse country - religion, politics, education, geography, weather are all different across the country. We have the characteristics of a rich country as well as a poor country. Thus, we have the largest scooter manufacturer in the world and globally efficient steel plants and, then, we also have a large portion of our population below the poverty line.

There is lot of talk of governance from corporations to politicians - my view is that human frailty is not the monopoly of India. This happens all over the world. Maybe we shout a bit more and maybe have a bit more petty corruption, but none of this is unique to India. Of course, this does not mean we do not have to rectify it. People also say the Indian political class is very bad.

Let us understand that other countries may have to learn from Indian politics of how to manage a democracy when the cake is not large enough. Other democracies may go through this situation in the years to come.

Don’t let these temporary factors which I call the noise of a democracy in transition cloud your judgment about the vibrancy of India. I feel RTI (right to information) has proved to be excellent for the country. India’s problems are not unknown. The difference is that they are now being discussed on live television. However, this is leading to improvement. For example, which country has seen government-empowered ministers in jail, entrepreneurs in jail and bureaucrats on the docks? We are now introducing the Lokpal bill. I feel that our nadir is behind us.

I believe, that even if we do not solve our problems, we can grow at 7.5-8%. However, that will be foolhardy on our part. We have the potential to grow at 10%. Why? We are growing at 8.4% today. On a simplistic basis, if we take C+I+G - one can argue there has been some amount of “G” but “I” has been missing. When the investment cycle starts, “I” will kick in and we can easily sustain at 8%.

What we need to go from 7.5-8% growth to 10% is common knowledge. We need more infrastructure. However, it is wrong to say that infrastructure is not happening due to lack of funding. There is no viable infrastructure project in the country that is waiting for finance. There are other issues to be addressed such as land acquisition, mining or the plethora of approvals needed that is slowing things down. These are not difficult issues to resolve and infrastructure will therefore happen. Some of it is already happening. People are focusing on the 10 power projects that do not have coal supply. The fact is that we have installed 26,000 mw of power since public-private partnership was set up. This is more capacity than what we built in several years prior.

Some projects may not take off, others will receive coal from players with surplus and several pending projects will hit the ground. We have been through the worst on infrastructure. We have already come a long way on ports. Airports look better. Power - some issues are still pending. Critical resolution required in roads and mining. I believe these will receive attention very soon.

Let’s take the subsidy issue - the triple “F” subsidy on fertiliser, food and fuel. These are damaging our economy for two reasons - the subsidies are not going to the right people and we need a clearer policy. As far as fertiliser is concerned, a new policy is in place and the burden is declining. On fuel, I am reasonably confident of market-based pricing in the next few months. And on food, whether it is through Nandan Nilekani’s project or through banks’ financial inclusion programme, the subsidy will start going to the right people. If we can get the subsidy right, disparities will start receding.

Now, let us discuss the next issue, the fiscal deficit. Oil prices are rising, fiscal deficit targets will go awry - that is a common concern. That said, the only economist who went right about F2011 GDP forecast was the government of India. Everybody else went wrong. I am not holding brief for the government. I am just saying it the way I see it. I believe that once the debt management office comes into play it will put tremendous discipline on the states’ borrowings and the overall deficit. GST (goods and services tax) will also bring the sizeable black economy into play with buoyancy in revenues. So together, the plan on subsidies and GST will eventually bring the deficit lower. Temporarily, you have an issue. You also have an inflation issue currently. Maybe we could have acted faster, maybe we couldn’t. One must understand this is both a demand and supply problem, some of it is imported. Monetary policy is not the way to resolve because then you could end up hurting growth.

If I had the option, I would look at breaking some of the fiscal targets but bring inflation under control. Inflation will come down partly because the developed world is not in good shape based on my interactions with managements of companies in these economies. Hence there is downside risk to commodities and India’s inflation can come under control. We need tremendous agriculture reform and delta there could be substantial in terms of growth. I have feeling that FDI will be allowed in retail very soon. I think we will see a new India in the next three months, directionally. Issues such as FDI in retail, supply chain reform, microfinance reform, and creation of cooperatives (like in milk) will happen sooner than most think. Again, our problems can be solved. Most people do not realise that we have more arable land than China. Our issue is that we don’t cultivate as efficiently. That is less of a problem than not having arable land.

No doubt, RBI has raised rates. Now the market is calling for a fall in margins, rising bad debts and lower growth. First thing, I have said is that rates will go up but margins will remain intact.
After all this bad news, we still have an 8% growing economy but people are talking as though the economy is growing at 2%. Importantly, we don’t have bubbles. Some power projects or some road projects may be facing problems, but these are all within the absorption capacity of the institutions. There does not appear to be any systemic risk. So I see major growth in investment and consumption, I see the government managing expenses better - the country has a great future.

Alert:-

1. Market May Fall 10-20 % or More From Current Level

2. Plz Do Your Home Work Before Make any Investment.

The investment ideas of Warren Buffett is most basic and simple to implement. The beauty of his investment ideas is that they are so easy and logical that at times peopleoverlook the same ideas even though it must have crossed their mind. These investment ideas of Warren Buffett has not only help the maestro to make billions but also stands as a guiding principles for every other investor of this world.

Warren Buffett’s investment ideas asks us to buy stocks of only those companies whose “fundamentals” are very strong and its stock is available at “undervalued price”. When we say strong fundamentals we mean a healthy financial report, unique product line which is run by exceptional managers.

Think Big TO EARN BIGGG

1.Google to buy Motorola Mobility for $12.5 bn

Yes!!!!

Google Inc said it would buy phone hardware maker Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc for $12.5 billion in cash to bolster the adoption of its Android mobile software.

In its biggest deal to date, Google said it would pay $40 per share, a 63% premium to Motorola Mobility's Friday closing price on the New York Stock Exchange.

Be Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Something not going good in market!!!!

Stay Cautious in Near Term!!!!!

Yes!!!!!!!

You All Know What Happened in Market!!!!!

Always..............track me Brings.......Accurate Idea of market Trends

When Street Talker Barking......

Street Talker Barking.....Nifty Can go 4800...4500...4200 Due to High Crude Price..........

Ongoing Scams Budget Worries

When.....................

1.Some Big Opertor Saying Sensex Heading to 16000-14000

According to a recent report by Morgan Stanley Research on emerging markets , the first half of the year will continue to be difficult in terms of returns but the performance is likely to improve in the second half of the year!!!

The report highlights three possible scenarios for the MSCI Emerging Market Index-a bull case, a bear case and a base case. It assigns different weightages to each (see graphic).

Accordingly, the report says, earnings are likely to see a deceleration in EPS growth, from around 40% YoY in 2010 to 13% YoY in the base case and 4% in the bear case!!!

FII Figure!!!!!!

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What To Do Today........

Nifty....Today Face Resistence at....5150...5193....5230

Nifty.....Today Support at .....5005...4972...4925

Nifty Range...4800--------6600

TRACK ME RESEARCH......

NEXT TGT FOR

WE SHORT NIFTY @6100 TGT 5350 / 4800

OUR 1 TGT HIT NIFTY 5350OUR 2 TGT ALSO DONE 4850

Scammmmmmmmm Rumors Every where So Stay Away...

Our Opininon for Today's Market.......

1.Stock Specific Movement Expected Today ......

2.Midcaps Looks Good........

INTRADAY HOT STOCKS: 18/08/2011

BUY ITC AND HUL TGT 2% SL 1% CMP TGT HIT

BUY UNIPHOS @ 147 TGT 151/155 SL 144 OPEN

BUY COAL IND@ 398 TGT 402/406 SL 394 TGT HIT

BUY POLARIS@ 133 TGT 136/138 SL 131TGT HIT

SELL TCS, INFOSYS, SBI, RIL IN HIGHER SIDE ALL DONW 2%

SELL AMRUTANJAN @ 775 TGT 762 TGT HIT
BUY EDSEV@ 113 TGT 124 TGT HIT
SELL RAYMOND@ 344 TGT 336 TGT HIT
SELL NIFTY @ 5050 TGT 4950 TGT HIT
BUY 5100 PE@ 120 TGT 175 TGT HIT

commdities
sell nickel @ 988 tgt 982 tgt hit
sell copper@ 405 tgt 402 tgt hit
buy gold@ 26550 tgt 26650/26750/26850/26950/27050/27150 all hit
buy silver @ 60500 tgt 61000 tgt hit

currency
buy usd@ 45.60 tgt 45.75 tgt hit

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