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Oil prices have fallen sharply in the past two months, with Brent crude sinking to $97 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate hitting $83. The explanation is simple: Since March, the world has been producing more oil than it’s consuming, according to data gathered by the Energy Intelligence Group. Global oil consumption has been declining since the end of 2011, falling to 88.5 million barrels per day at the end of April, from 90.4 million barrels per day in late December 2011. At the same time, world oil production has risen steadily for more than a year, driven by new finds and drilling techniques in North America and a 10 percent increase in production from OPEC during the past 12 months. The last time supply outstripped demand was in 2006.
The U.S. is now sitting on more oil supplies than it has since 1990. And yet our demand for it is at close to a 15-year low—a result of economic weakness and increased energy efficiency. “The amount of oil it takes to move the economy is declining,” says Fadel Gheit, an energy analyst at Oppenheimer.
The price declines have coincided with a steep selloff in oil futures contracts over the last two months. Speculators cut their net-long positions—bets that the price will rise—to the equivalent of 136 million barrels of oil, the lowest level since September 2010, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This follows a huge speculative buying binge. Oil prices spiked from October through March—a six-month bull run fueled by speculative worry over an Iranian supply disruption.
With speculative money pouring out of the oil market, the price is closer to reflecting supply-demand fundamentals. And that means the world’s two most traded oil contracts should continue to fall in price through the summer, analysts say. Religare Capital Markets forecasts that Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, will fall to $90 a barrel by September, and that West Texas Intermediate should fall to $80.
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The southwest monsoon has arrived over Kerala, India Meteorological Department announced this morning.
The monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, southern parts of central Arabian Sea and remaining part of the Maldives–Comorin areas.
It has also covered entire Kerala, some parts of coastal Karnataka and south Tamil Nadu and some more parts of south and east central Bay of Bengal.
The northern limit passed through Mangalore, Madikeri and Kodaikanal this morning.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of coastal Karnataka, Goa, some parts of south Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra and interior Karnataka, more arts of Tamil Nadu and Bay of Bengal and some parts of the Northestern states during next two days.
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Nifty....Today Face Resistence at......5165...5195...5238
Nifty.....Today Support at ....5095...5055...4925
Nifty Range...4200--------6600
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NEXT TGT FOR
WE SHORT NIFTY @6100 TGT 5350 / 4800
OUR 1 TGT HIT NIFTY 5350 OUR 2 TGT ALSO
DONE 4850 NEXT 4600/4200
DONE 4850 NEXT 4600/4200
Our Opininon for Today's Market.......
1.Stock Specific Movement Expected Today ......
2.Midcaps Looks Good....
INTRADAY HOT STOCKS:18/06/2012
BUY TATA MO AB 241 TGT 244/247/250 SL 236
BUY JSWENERY @ 49 TGT 51/54 SL 47
BUY AMBUJA @ 167 TGT 170/172 SL 165
BUY POLARIS @ 120 TGT 122/125 SL 118
BUY IRB AROUND 124/126 SL 119 TGT 130++
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